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فاطمه افشارنیا افشین مرزبان

چکیده

کارکرد مطلوب و نگهداری سیستم‌های مهندسی ارتباط تنگاتنگی با پیش‌بینی دقیق خرابی‌های آن‌ها دارد. نگهداری و تعمیرات پیشگیرانه به‌عنوان یک استراتژی مؤثر در بهبود قابلیت اطمینان، دوره عمر مفید و کارایی تجهیزات نقش اساسی ایفا می‌کند. استفاده از روش‌های بازرسی دوره‌ای منظم و سرویس‌دهی، منجر به بهبود راندمان نگهداشت و نهایتاً موجب کاهش هزینه‌های آن می‌شود. هدف از این مطالعه، بررسی روند نرخ خرابی و کارایی ماشین برداشت نیشکر در طی یک دوره 6 ساله و پیش‌بینی آن در شرکت توسعه نیشکر و صنایع جانبی استان خوزستان بود. برای این منظور الگوهای سری زمانی ARIMA برآورد و بهترین الگو انتخاب گردید. طبق نتایج نرخ خرابی ماشین برداشت نیشکر در سال 1395 نسبت به سال 1390، 23/73 درصد کاهش داشته است. کارایی عملیاتی ماشین برداشت نیشکر نیز در همین مدت، 9/14 درصد افزایش داشته است. زیر سیستم‌های تاپر، برق و موتور به‌ترتیب با 75/94، 46/80 و 74/58 درصد کاهش خرابی‌ها در سال ششم نسبت به سال اوّل بیشترین تأثیرپذیری را از استراتژی نگهداری و تعمیرات پیشگیرانه نشان دادند. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از پیش‌بینی متغیر نرخ خرابی مشخص شد که تفاوت چندانی در روند نرخ خرابی پیش‌بینی‌شده و نرخ خرابی واقعی ماشین برداشت نیشکر وجود ندارد که این امر بیانگر دقت بالای پیش‌بینی با استفاده از مدل ARIMA می‌باشد.

جزئیات مقاله

کلمات کلیدی

ARIMA, پیش‌بینی, کارایی, ماشین برداشت نیشکر, نرخ خرابی

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ارجاع به مقاله
افشارنیاف., & مرزبانا. (2018). بررسی اثر بلند مدت استراتژی نگهداری و تعمیرات پیشگیرانه بر کارایی عملیاتی و روند نرخ خرابی ماشین برداشت نیشکر با استفاده از سری‌های زمانی. ماشین‌های کشاورزی, 10(2), 347-359. https://doi.org/10.22067/jam.v10i2.70962
نوع مقاله
مقاله کامل پژوهشی