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امید قادرپور شاهین رفیعی محمد شریفی

چکیده

این مطالعه با هدف ارزیابی چرخه زندگی تولید یونجه و همچنین مدل‌سازی میزان شاخص پتانسیل گرمایش جهانی بر اساس نهاده‌های ورودی به کمک سامانه انفیس چندلایه انجام گرفت. داده‌های اولیه از طریق مصاحبه رو در رو با کشاورزان یونجه‌کار روستاهای شهرستان بوکان و پر کردن 75 پرسشنامه‌ تخصصی جمع‌آوری شد. دروازه مزرعه و یک هکتار زمین زراعی به‌ترتیب به‌عنوان مرز سامانه و واحد عملکردی انتخاب شدند. به‌منظور ارزیابی اثرات زیست‌محیطی از نرم‌افزار سیماپرو نسخه 8.2.3.0 استفاده شد. مقادیر دسته‌های اثر پتانسیل گرمایش جهانی، تقلیل منابع غیر‌آلی، تقلیل منابع غیر‌آلی (سوخت‌های فسیلی)، پتانسیل اسیدی شدن، اختناق دریاچه‌ای، مسمومیت انسان‌ها، مسمومیت خاک و اکسیداسیون فتوشیمیایی به‌ترتیب برابر kg CO2 eq 13373، kg Sb eq 0/015، MJ 205169، kg SO2 eq 90/64، kg PO4-2 eq 19/78، kg 1,4-DB eq 2054، kg 1,4-DB eq 38/7 و kg C2H4 eq 3/84 به‌دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که الکتریسیته بر همه شاخص‌ها به‌جز پتانسیل اختناق دریاچه‌ای بیشترین تأثیر را داشت و بیشترین سهم آلایندگی شاخص پتانسیل اختناق دریاچه‌ای مربوط به انتشارات مستقیم مزرعه‌ای بود. نتایج ارزیابی آسیب نیز نشانگر تأثیر بالای الکتریسیته بر همه دسته‌های آسیب به‌جز کیفیت اکوسیستم بود. نتایج مدل‌سازی نشان داد که روش C-means با دقت بالاتری از روش k-fold مقدار پتانسیل گرمایش جهانی را پیش‌بینی می‌کند. مقدار ضریب تبیین (R2) بین مقادیر واقعی و پیش‌بینی شده GWP (Global warming potential) برای دو مدل k-fold و C-means به‌ترتیب برابر 0/994 و 0/99 بود. به‌طور کلی نتایج مدل‌سازی بیانگر دقت بالای انفیس نهایی برای پیش‌بینی میزان آلایندگی در هر دو روش مدل‌سازی بود.

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ارجاع به مقاله
قادرپورا., رفیعیش., & شریفیم. (2017). ارزیابی چرخه زندگی تولید یونجه و پیش‌بینی میزان آلایندگی با استفاده از سامانه استنتاج فازی- عصبی تطبیقی چندلایه در شهرستان بوکان. ماشین‌های کشاورزی, 8(1), 119-136. https://doi.org/10.22067/jam.v8i1.56600
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