مدل‌سازی پویایی سیستم اثرات بلندمدت مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی بر سطح زیر کشت و عملکرد گندم

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• آتنا کشوری ¹
• افشین مرزبان ¹
• محمد امین آسودار ¹
• عباس عبدشاهی ²
• میر سامان پیشوایی ³

¹ گروه مهندسی ماشین‌های کشاورزی و مکانیزاسیون، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستائی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران

² گروه مهندسی اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستائی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران

³ گروه مهندسی سیستم‌های هوشمند، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

10.22067/jam.2025.95519.1432

چکیده

با تشدید فشارهای ناشی از محدودیت منابع، تغییرات اقلیمی و کمبود نیروی کار روستایی، مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی به اهرمی استراتژیک برای ارتقای بهره‌وری تبدیل شده است. این مطالعه یک مدل پویایی سیستم را برای بررسی اثرات بلندمدت مکانیزاسیون بر سطح زیرکشت و عملکرد گندم در نظام‌های خرده‌مالکی توسعه داد. پژوهش با ترسیم نمودار حلقه علی (CLD) برای مفهوم‌سازی ساختارهای بازخورد کلیدی آغاز شد. سپس یک مدل شبیه‌سازی موجودی و جریان، با استفاده از داده‌های استان خوزستان (2022-2011) تدوین و اعتبارسنجی شد. نتایج، همخوانی قوی بین روندهای شبیه‌سازی شده و مشاهداتی را در شاخص‌های اصلی نشان داد. از مدل برای شبیه‌سازی سناریوهای سیاستی مختلف شامل نوسازی ناوگان ماشین‌ها، دسترسی به آب و تغییرپذیری بارندگی استفاده شد. افزایش 30 درصدی نرخ جایگزینی ماشین‌آلات منجر به افزایش 7 درصدی عملکرد و 1 درصدی سطح زیرکشت نسبت به پایه شد. هنگامی که بهبود مکانیزاسیون با دسترسی بهتر آب ترکیب شد، اثر نهایی آن بر استفاده از زمین کاهش یافت که نشان‌دهنده تمایل کشاورزان به کشت محصولات باارزش در شرایط هیدرولوژیک مطلوب است. در مقابل، در شرایط کم‌آبی، کشت گندم به‌دلیل سازگاری و کارایی ناشی از مکانیزاسیون، گسترش یافت. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت توجه به تعامل آب و مکانیزاسیون در طراحی سیاست‌ها، به‌ویژه در مناطق خشک تأکید می‌کنند. مدل ارائه‌شده، ابزار انعطاف‌پذیر و مبتنی بر تجربه برای پشتیبانی از تصمیم‌گیری در راستای بهبود تاب‌آوری اقلیمی و استفاده بهینه از منابع فراهم می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• پویایی سیستم
• سناریوسازی
• گندم
• مدیریت منابع آب
• مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی

موضوعات

• مدل‌سازی

Authors retain the copyright. This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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